Estimating the Term Structure of Corporate Bond Risk Premia
A look at how risk premia play a meaningful role in shaping the term structure of returns in the corporate bond market.
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Labor markets and structural transformation in times of change: AI and demographic shifts
Labor markets around the world are being reshaped by powerful trends, including rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and population aging in some regions and youth bulges in others. AI's impact on labor market...
What Workplace Composition Are Job Candidates Looking For?
A look at men’s and women’s preferences for sex composition, or the mix of men and women, in the workplace.
Seeing Through the Shutdown’s Missing Inflation Data
A look at the changes in underlying inflation over the past four months using the New York Fed’s Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation model.
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find...
Where Are Mortgage Delinquencies Rising the Most?
Though still near low long-term levels, mortgage delinquencies are up, especially in areas with rising unemployment and worse housing market conditions.
Does the Phillips Curve Steepen When Costs Surge?
A look at how nonlinear inflation dynamics relate to the slope of the Phillips curve.
Anatomy (not Autopsy) of the Phillips Curve
The author presents evidence showing that the Phillips curve is alive and steep, and it captures inflation volatility remarkably well.
New York Fed EHIs Reveal Small Business Struggles
A look at the New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs), which have been expanded to include the performance of small businesses.
A New Dataset for Consumer Spending in the New York Fed EHIs
A look at a new set of metrics being added to the New York Fed’s Economic Heterogeneity Indicators (EHIs) which covers consumer spending.
Understating Rising Quality Means Import Price Inflation Is Overstated
A look at a novel method to infer quality changes, which is applied to U.S. price indices and suggests that import price inflation is overstated.
Disability in the Labor Market: Earnings
A look at the differences in weekly earnings for prime-aged (25-54) workers with and without disabilities.